Abundance: The future is brighter than your think. - Book Review

Abundance by Peter Diamandis and Steven Kotler is a well-researched and hugely optimistic book. Its central thesis is that new technologies are going to solve many of the world's resource problems over the coming ten to twenty years, bringing about a world of future abundance. The book's structure follows what the authors term 'The Abundance Pyramid': water, food, shelter, energy, education, health care and freedom (a hierarchy of human needs based loosely on Maslow). Each of these needs are explored in depth and the authors share insights from leading edge research and the likely benefits that they might bring.

Energy
Take, for example, energy, "arguably the most important lynch-pin for abundance" (p.156): where is all the energy going to come from? The authors explore three options: solar and photovoltaics, synthetic bio-fuels and "fourth generation" nuclear power. Of these, they argue, solar has the most potential: "The German Aerospace Centre estimates that the solar power in the deserts of North Africa is enough to supply forty times the present world electricity demand" (p.157). The chapter unpacks each of these three energy sources as well as outlining other significant technical developments, which will enhance these, such as Liquid Metal Battery technologies which promise to enable us store clean energy; and development of "an intelligent network of power lines, switches and sensors able to monitor and control energy down to the. Level of a single lightbulb" (p.169).

Alongside discussion of the developments in these key areas, the authors outline four key drivers of technological progress:

1. The DIY Innovator - collaboration through e Internet means that small groups are far more powerful than ever before. On the Wikipedia principle, it is possible for enthusiasts and experts to work together to solve problems more efficiently than is possible in large corporations. 
2. The Technophilanthropists - Billionaire philanthropists, such as Microsoft's Bill Gates and eBay's founder Pierre Omidyar, are pouring resources into solving many of the world's problems on a scale that previously was possible only at a Governmental level. Unlike e Mega-rich philanthropists of the past (Rockefeller, Vanderbilt Carnegie et al) the current breed are young and see the world (as opposed to NYC/USA as their stage). 
3. The Rising Billion - "the bottom billion" (= four billion people) are becoming connected and are set to be net economic contributors and consumers in the next two decades. 
4. The Power of Incentive Competitions - competitions with large prizes put up by philanthropists have a long history of promoting innovation and technological break-throughs. (Here Peter Diamandis is plugging the X-PRIZE of which he is the founder and CEO, but the argument is nevertheless an interesting one. 

The World of Abundance: 

The world of Abundance is one where all are fed and watered and there is enough power that we can start to clean up the planet by removing carbon from the atmosphere or to think about investigating Space seriously. People will continue to get healthier as medicine becomes "predictive, personalised, preventive and participatory" (= P4 medicine; p.201-3); X-ray machines will be the size of a suitcase (p.194), spare organs will be 3-D printed or cultivated to order from stem cells (p.200-1) and most, if not all Blue-collar work will be taken over by robots, including care of the elderly (how do you feel about the prospect of "robo-nurse"?). Robots will also perform routine, repetitive operations (e.g. Cataract p.197).

Education 

In the context of such abundantly interesting read, the chapter on Education was a little disappointing, but that's perhaps only because it was the area with which I am most familiar. The authors retrace the New Delhi hole-in-the-wall research, Negroponte's One Laptop per Child (OLPC) initiative, before regurgitating Sir Ken Robinson's critique of the present educational system (see Sir Ken's TED talk "Schools kill Creativity").

Learning like Video Games

However, there is an eloquent argument that "we need to make learning a lot more like video games and a lot less like school" (p.183). Indeed there may be much to learn from the ways in which Game Designers motivate gamers and reward success. Game designers never give negative or bad grades because gamers don't like it. Lee Sheldon, a professor at the University of Indiana, has "implemented an 'experience points' game based design. Students begin a semester as a level zero avatar (equivalent to an F) and strive toward a level 12 (an A). This means that everything you do in class produces forward motion, and students always know exactly where they stand - two conditions that serve to motivate." This makes enormous sense. We are all familiar with Dweck's research that demonstrate that many pupils prefer to do the same puzzle again and again rather than attempting a harder puzzle for fear of failing. Yet, many of those very same pupils will devote hours of their free time gaining experience to get to the next level in a computer game.

The Inverted School

The Khan Academy is held up as a model for classroom teaching of the future (yes, you read it correctly): Los Altos School District in California "are taking an approach that inverts the 200-year old schoolhouse model":

"Instead of teachers using classroom time to deliver lectures, students are assigned to watch Khan Academy videos as homework, so that class time can be spent solving problems . . . This lets teachers personalise education trading their sage-on-stage role for that of a coach. Students now work at their own pace and only advance to the next topic they have thoroughly learned the last." (p.186-7)

Conclusion
Abundance is a fascinating and challenging read for anyone who is interested in learning about what the future might hold. The book is fully indexed and referenced and has some informative indices outlining the data - mainly in graphic form - which supports the thesis. Above all it is a much-needed and most welcome counterblast to the doomsday scenarios perpetuated in the media. Lets hope we can build a future where our grandchildren will in a world of abundance.

The Author

The principal author, Peter Diamandis, is the Chairman and CEO of the X PRIZE foundation and co-founder and executive chairman of Singularity University, which appears to be a very interesting think-tank that brings together forward-thinkers and futurists and whose mission is mission is "to educate, inspire and empower leaders to apply exponential technologies to address humanity’s grand challenges" (worth a look).

www.Abundancethebook.com
www.AbundanceHub.com

"Wisdom of the Class" - Collaborative Learning in Schools

Several years ago I was privileged to hear Dylan Wiliam address the HMC Conference on Teaching and Learning. The essence of his argument was that pupils learn more from each other than from the teacher. What he said struck a chord with me. I was teaching classroom ICT at the time [teaching the ECDL to Year 9] and could see this dynamic in action. Two or three pupils in the class got what I said, and I could see this knowledge spread around the classroom virally as pupils taught each other how to navigate the inner workings of the MS Office suite. I adapted my teaching style accordingly, encouraging the more able to support the weaker ones and [as extension tasks] to write crib sheets to help those found a particular topic challenging.

Eight years on and we now have web-based tools in place that allow pupils to collaborate on projects and to share ideas. Here at Berkhamsted, we have moved to using Google Docs and a whole range of web-based freeware to enable pupils to share ideas and to comment on each other's work. Pupils are able to share their expertise with other pupils, they are able to refine their ideas and to bring on the weaker students
This is so much more effective than a teacher standing at the front, or even passing round exemplar material. Clearly critics will say that such an approach is open to abuse, by pupils being humiliated publicly by their peers. Of course this is possible, but what is interesting is that the pupils themselves have put "rules of engagement" in place to make clear that such an approach is unacceptable.

The whole Wikipedia project is based on the premise of the "Wisdom of the Crowd", i.e. that there are sufficient experts and enthusiasts 'out there' who collectively know more any individual and who will correct, update and amend articles. Using collaborative tools allows teachers to harness the "Wisdom of the Class" - allowing pupils to support each other.

Schools should not be about teaching - they are about learning: it is not about well-crafted lessons, but about whether or not pupils actually learn. This will mean that the role of teachers will change. Teachers often (but not always) will need to set up the structures for the collaboration to take place. They will need to set the assignments and they will need to monitor that the discussions are on track, but a light touch approach is recommended. Pupils operate best when they see this as "their" space. Teachers are able to follow the discussions and even to join in the discussions when necessary.

Collaborative working is one of the most important skills that this generation of pupils is going to need in life - it is already the norm in work place . Collaborative working is not cheating - it is the future.

Educating Digital Natives – ICT and Schools

My article on Educating Digital Natives – ICT and Schools has just been published in the Independent Schools' Council Bulletin 24 - May 2009 pp. 26-29.

Click here to download the Bulletin in pdf format.

We don't teach children to tell the time anymore ...

I have been reflecting on Prensky's ideas that, in the future, the wise will be those who draw on digital enhancements.

The concept of using digital enhancements is not so alien as it first appears. After all, we do not teach children to tell the time anymore; we teach them to use a machine, which we strap to their wrist, that tells the time for them. Digital enhancements are already making a difference in many areas of business life. These tools already enhance memory, they provide up to the minute information, they allow levels of analysis incapable by the human brain. Just as the cheat who uses his phone to access the internet will win the pub quiz, so the skilled person who uses digital enhancements will make better decisions and judgements.

Homo Sapiens Digital: Digital Wisdom

Marc Prensky, the man who coined the term, "Digital Native" and "Digital Immigrant" has just revised his idea. In a recent article, he puts forward his thoughts about "Digital Wisdom".

Digital technology, I believe, can be used to make us not just smarter but truly wiser. Digital wisdom is a twofold concept, referring both to wisdom arising from the use of digital technology to access cognitive power beyond our innate capacity and to wisdom in the prudent use of technology to enhance our capabilities. Because of technology, wisdom seekers in the future will benefit from unprecedented, instant access to ongoing worldwide discussions, all of recorded history, everything ever written, massive libraries of case studies and collected data, and highly realistic simulated experiences equivalent to years or even centuries of actual experience. How and how much they make use of these resources, how they filter through them to find what they need, and how technology aids them will certainly play an important role in determining the wisdom of their decisions and judgments. Technology alone will not replace intuition, good judgment, problem-solving abilities, and a clear moral compass. But in an unimaginably complex future, the digitally unenhanced person, however wise, will not be able to access the tools of wisdom that will be available to even the least wise digitally enhanced human.

Moreover, given that the brain is now generally understood to be highly plastic, continually adapting to the input it receives, it is possible that the brains of those who interact with technology frequently will be restructured by that interaction. The brains of wisdom seekers of the future will be fundamentally different, in organization and in structure, than our brains are today. Future wisdom seekers will be able to achieve today's level of wisdom without the cognitive enhancements offered by increasingly sophisticated digital technology, but that wisdom will not be sufficient, either in quality or in nature, to navigate a complex, technologically advanced world.

Digital Natives are growing up in a different world to the one in which we live and work. They have already transformed their own world and we will be able to track their impact on society year by year as they become a greater proportion of the workforce. I agree that it is likely that young people who combine traditional skills with high levels of digital literacy are going to be the leaders of society in years to come. Schools have a responsibility to prepare young people for the world that they are going to inhabit. Independent schools have established educational traditions and these will continue to have great value, but they also need to embrace new technologies if they are to prepare young people for the world of the mid-twenty-first century.

For more information see

• Marc Prensky's webcast on Digital Wisdom
  
• Marc Prensky's Open letter to the Obama Administration