How JESS Dubai is using MidYIS to raise pupil attainment at GCSE

JESS, Dubai is using MidYIS to raise pupil attainment at GCSE. Here's how we are doing it:

Overview 

MidYIS is a very powerful management tool for JESS, Dubai, where we are using it as the key way to drive school improvement at both KS3 and KS4.

One of the greatest strengths of MidYIS is that this CEM project based at Durham University has been running over quarter of a century and has analysed the performance at GCSE of millions of children. Its longitudinal nature combined with the extensiveness of the data set means that MidYIS has the capacity to generate meaningful predictions about pupil performance at GCSE. This mechanism means that schools are able to use MidYiS to drive school improvement in a number of important ways. At JESS, Dubai, we use MidYIS in three ways:

1. to set realistic aspirational targets for young people, which we can share with parents so that we can marshal additional support from home; 
2. to monitor the performance of departments and individual teachers; 
3. to benchmark as a school against other schools both in the region and in the UK.

Raising Aspirations 

When the young people join the school they have a baseline test in year 7 at secondary level. We then have data from that which would produce a series of chances graphs for each of their subjects. The strength of the MidYIS system for predicting outcomes is that it does not pigeon hole children to a single grade. Rather it offers a range of grades which a pupil of a given ability might achieve in the form of a 'Chances Graph'.

Figure 1 is a Chances Graph for French GCSE

Figure 1 outlines the percentage of candidates of a given base-line performance who achieved respective grades in their GCSE French. In this example,

• 2% got an E grade 
• 8% got a D grade 
• 21% got a C grade 
• 29% got a B grade   (= Most Likely Grade)
• 26% got an A grade (= Aspirational Target Grade)
• 13% got an A* grade 

At JESS we share set “Aspirational Target Grades” (ATG) for each subject in January of Year 7. The AT is calculated as one grade higher than the most likely grade achieved by pupils from Independent Schools in the UK. In the example above the most likely grade is a ‘B’, so the ATG would be an ‘A’.

The ATGs are set in January of Year 7 and published to pupils and parents. We have incorporated the ATGs into our reporting structure so that teachers report on progress against these grades, so parents and pupils know whether they are on track for their aspirational target or working towards it, or how far short are they. Accumulative reporting data is then analysed centrally. Thus tracking data can be a really useful tool which allows Heads of Department, Heads of Year and School leaders to know the proportion of a particular year group or subject group are on track to meet their aspirational target. So, for example, the Head of History can identify how the Year 10 GCSE group are doing and can put in place intervention strategies at an early stage.

Tracking pupil progress against ATGs also enables the Head of Year or School Leaders to informed conversations with parents. A typical conversation might be:

Mr and Mrs Smith, Amy’s most likely grade in History is to get a B grade, so we are aiming at a target of an A; her current performance indicates that she in on track for a C grade, which we feel is a little low. So, we need to work with you on this one and need to support to help Amy to put a greater effort into her studies in History. 

 ATGs are a great way to change the mind-set of key players in the educational process. Tracking pupil progress against ATGs it gives schools data which they can use to marshal the whole community of stakeholders: whether it is raising the expectation of teachers for their pupils; or raising the aspirations of parents of the child herself. That triangulation of classroom, pupil and home is really important for the whole way in which we use MidYIS here at JESS.

The Impact on GCSE Results

Figure 2. JESS GCSE Results 2013-17

We introduced MidYIS tracking and target setting two years ago at JESS and our performance at GCSE has gone through the roof; particularly with our brighter students. The proportion of A*s at GCSE has gone from 20.3% to 33.2% A* and our A*A has gone from 54.4% to 65.9% in two years. Tracking pupil progress against ATGs is a tried and tested way of raising school attainment by raising aspirations.

GCSE results: academic success cannot be measured by grades alone

Today sees thousands of students who study in UK curriculum schools in the UAE receiving their GCSE results. Like many others, this year I am an anxious parent, hoping that my sixteen year-old has got the best possible set exam results that will allow him to progress to the sixth form on a path that I hope will take him to university and, from there, on into successful and fulfilled employment. Amid the anxiety and relief, the questions nagging at the back of many parents’ minds on results’ day are ‘Did my child get the best possible grades that he could have?’ and, given the amount we invest in our children’s education in the UAE, ‘Has the school done a good job?”

As parents and teachers we know that not all children are the same. Some have a greater aptitude for academic studies than others; for some work comes easy - for others it is hard; some make a huge effort – others are lazy or disengaged. For this reason, academic success cannot simply be measured by the final grades: a gifted student who achieves 10 A grades may have under-performed, whereas a less gifted student may well have fulfilled her potential and achieved 5 Bs and 3Cs. The true measure of performance in any examination is not raw results, rather we should judge our children’s performance in relation to their ability. The question is how do we decide whether or not a student has fulfilled his or her potential?

One important way of evaluating this is by looking at a measure of “Value Added”. The Durham University Centre for Evaluation and Monitoring (CEM) has been researching student performance for over thirty years. Over this time, millions of students have been tested at the start of their secondary schooling (aged 11) and their performances monitored at GCSE (aged 16). These data allow CEM to define with a high degree of accuracy what grade a student of a given baseline score is most likely to get in their GCSE in a given subject. This is not to say that all students of the same ability get the same results: the CEM data set is able to outline the percentage chance of a student of a given ability will achieve. For example, 2% of students with a given baseline score might have a got an ‘E’ in French GCSE, 8% got a ‘D’, 21% got a ‘C’, 29% got a ‘B’, 26% got an ‘A’, and 13% got an ‘A*’. In this case the ‘most likely grade’ is a ‘B’. Thus if a student of this ability gets an ‘A’ or an ‘A*’, it might be said that he or she has exceeded expectations; whereas if the student gets below a B grade, he or she has fallen short of expectations.

Value-added is also a useful measure of evaluating schools, departments and even teachers. A school, department or teacher who consistently has students who are exceeding expectations is adding value and is doing a great job; conversely a school, department or teacher whose students consistently fall short of expectations indicates the urgent need for improvement. Savvy parents looking for a secondary school, would be well advised to ask for the schools’ value added scores, rather than just their raw GCSE results – they can be far more telling.

At JESS, we use CEM baseline data to set aspirational targets for students (and staff). These targets are published to parents and we report on the student’s performance in a given subject against these targets.

Results days are always anxious times for all concerned. It usually is a time for celebration, as well as a time for relief. When your child brings you the result slip, don’t forget that their greatest achievement is sometimes the hard-fought ‘C’ grade in the subject that they find most difficult. Good luck!

A version of this article was published in online version of The National.

The Case for combining a UK and International Curriculum: GCSE + International Baccalaureate (IBDP)

The following was an interview for WhichSchoolAdvisor 30/11/2015

1. What are the benefits of the following the British system to GCSE, in relation to the preparation it gives students for the IB Diploma (compared with schools offering the straight IB experience from KG to Diploma)?
   JESS is a British Curriculum School that sets out to prepare young people to be global citizens. A significant proportion of parents choose to combine the British system to GCSE with the IB Diploma, as a way of remaining true to their British roots, whilst acknowledging that the young people in our care are going to live and work in global economy and need the skills and experiences to be able to do this. Others choose this combination because GCSE is an internationally recognized qualification that provides a useful blend of breadth and specialization. The stretch offered in subjects such as the triple sciences in GCSE and Additional Mathematics prepare students very well for Diploma Higher Level study in these areas. The Language and Literature courses in GCSE English develop the skills for Language and Literature courses in Diploma English. The examination process at GCSE prepares students well for the rigour of IB. Combining the British system of GCSE with the IBDP enables students to tailor their range of subjects at GCSE to discover their strengths and match that of the offerings of IB. JESS’ option areas at GCSE reflect the spread of subjects and disciplines that will need to be taken in the Diploma.
2. What type of child/parent/family does this combined system work best for?
   The combination of the British system to GCSE with the IB Diploma works best for families who recognise that young people are going to be working in a global economy and want their children to receive an education that combines both traditional and forward-looking aspects. The English GCSE curriculum is respected globally. Good teaching through all Key Stages will ensure that students develop the skills required to study effectively at Post 16. Good teaching and learning is the key to success in any curriculum. The rigour of the examination process at GCSE prepares students extremely well for a comparable two years of study, albeit at a higher level, with terminal examinations. By completing the combined system families have numerous choices of Post 16 pathways if they wish to relocate. If they remain with the IB Diploma they will enhance their opportunities globally in tertiary education which is important in the expatriate environment. The IB Diploma is perhaps the most versatile school leaving qualification both in terms of the skills that it provides and in terms of providing smooth transition to the top university systems around the world. The IB Diploma is increasingly recognized as the best preparation for University study, be that in the UK, Europe, America or in the Southern Hemisphere. 
3. Briefly explain why it is ideal for students to follow the British system to year 12, then change to IB for the Diploma?
   Students will have embedded themselves and proven themselves in two systems which are both recognized globally. They will have succeeded in a GCSE programme that has shown they can succeed in examinations based largely in content and knowledge. The IB Diploma will then compliment this by developing higher level critical thinking and analytical skills. Admissions officers in the UK and around the world rank the IB ahead of other systems in encouraging independent study, developing work place skills, nurturing an open mind and self-management. The preparation of IB students for university (and the work place) is second to none. 
4. Are there any negatives you see in this combined British/IB system which parents should be aware of?
   We are not experiencing any negatives relating to the combined British/IB system. The IBDP, like A-level, is capable of providing a very broad curriculum, or a very specialized one. The key advantage of the IBDP over A-level is that the nature of the courses means that students develop a much broader skills base. The IBDP allows students to specialize at Higher Level, whilst maintaining a broad and balanced range of learning skills. For example, a student specializing in STEM subjects (Science, Technology, Engineering and Mathematics) will have the ability to write coherently and use appropriate analysis.   
5. How ideal is this combined system for ex-pat children, who are often expected to relocate throughout their school years?
   Relocation mid-way through a two year course, be that GCSE, A-level or IBDP, is never ideal. GCSE courses are generally available around the world. The IBDP is a truly international qualification and there are now many schools in the UK who offer it. One of the key advantages of the IBDP is that it aligns more closely to the educational systems in Europe, America, Australia and South Africa than A-level. 
6. What do you see as the post school-benefits of a combined British/IB curriculum? (university/employers/etc.)
   The British curriculum Pre 16 is tried and trusted and the internationally recognized assessment at 16 comes at a pivotal time for many families. University admissions are increasingly looking back at GCSE grades. By being in the combined system students then have the advantage of being to undertake the IBDP widely recognized as superior by both University Admissions officers and employers.
   As far as UK university entry is concerned, statistics reveal that
   + acceptance levels are actually higher for IB,
   + the drop-out rates are lower for IB,
   + IB students are more likely to achieve first and upper second class degrees. 
7. How can parents assess the suitability/success of any combined British/IB school before enrolling? (Accreditations/published exam results/reporting etc.)
   Parents wishing to research the relative benefits of schools should:
   a) visit the school and meet the students – they are the best indicator of a good school – well beyond reading a bunch of statistics or an inspection report. SJO] In reverse order.
   b) study the destinations of students after 18.
   c) scrutinise examination results whilst bearing in mind the profile of the school intake and admissions policy.   

I am grateful to Shane O'Brien, Head of Secondary at JESS for his help drafting these responses.

"More flexibility in the exams system": a double-edged sword?

The Coalition Government has committed itself "to create more flexibility in the exams system" [See The Coalition: our programme for government; 26 Schools]. I believe that any deregulation of the examination system should be used to drive up academic standards, rather than to create a vehicle for competition between examination boards.


Flexibility to stretch the brightest

In an effort to maintain academic standards at KS4, Independent Schools have migrated towards the International GCSEs [iGCSEs] over the past five years. That these schools have done this particularly in the core subjects of Maths, Science and English is evidence that these are the areas where the Labour Government's intervened most to dumb down the curriculum. The announcement that state school pupils will be able to sit is good news for both the Maintained and Independent Sectors.

The top State schools, especially the surviving State Grammars, have campaigned to be allowed to sit these more rigorous examinations, but were prevented from doing so by the previous Secretary of State, lest it highlight the deficiencies of the new GCSE specifications. Michael Gove, who is more open to acknowledging that Maintained sector schools can learn much from our world-class schools in the Independent Sector, has opened up the iGCSE to all.

It is good news, too, for Independent Schools. If we are to have a two-tier examination system of "more academic" iGCSEs and "less academic" GCSEs, it is well that that two-tier system transcends both the Independent and Maintained Sectors as it takes away any potential for discriminating against pupils from our sector, say, in University applications.


Flexibility to create new attractive products for the marketplace

Whilst some aspects of the deregulation of GCSEs are clearly welcome, but I am not sure that there should be a free-for-all. I am deeply concerned by the proposal from AQA that boys and girls could be able to sit different GCSEs.

The statement by Bill Alexander, AQA's director of curriculum and assessment, to the TES outlines the rationale:

“We could offer a route for boys that is very different to a route for girls. Girls tend to perform better with coursework while boys do better with end-of-year exams. So we are pursuing that in science to see if we could have an option in science where we might have a straightforward examination for boys but a possibility of having a coursework option for girls.”

Exams for boys, exams for girls TES 18/06/2010

But how his statement goes on is more revealing:

“We are looking to do something different where there is a need in the market.

“The current GCSE criteria don’t allow coursework, but if we have now got flexibility and freedom to develop alternative products then that is what we will want to use our expertise to produce.”

Here lies one of the key problems with the British examination system, namely that we have three Awarding Bodies who are in competition with each other. Exams have become "products" in the "market". Schools inevitably choose products that will improve their results. The way that our examination system is structured at present only serves to perpetuate the year-on-year grade inflation. I am not sure that we should be giving the Exam Boards greater flexibility to make exams any easier.

The future of GCSEs

The decision of Manchester Grammar School to abandon GCSE in favour of the iGCSE highlights the dilemma that faces most independent schools. We all want to give our pupils an education at KS4 that stretches them and provides them with a secure foundation for A-level. On the one hand, we recognise that GCSE has become less rigorous academically each year; on the other, the alternatives mean a fragmentation of the examination system which risks our pupils' qualifications not being understood or valued by universities or employers.

GCSE, for all its flaws, has provided a unified examination system since 1986. In theory the GCSE grade structure accommodated the weakest pupils, whilst providing for the most able, but this has been gradually eroded over the years. There are real dangers that the independent sector will become marginalised or discriminated against if it cuts itself off from the system of mainstream education in the country. If we remain with GCSE our pupils can demonstrate their proven relative quality and more easily demonstrate their ability in comparison to those in the maintained sector.

Top schools have always found ways to stretch the brightest pupils within the system, whether it was by putting pupils in for GCSEs early, or by increasing the number taken. The problem that we now face is that in "dumbing down" the curriculum to its lowest common denominator, the structure of GCSE has changed. The new science curriculum is a case in point. Foundation level science, which forms a compulsory part of the assessment, embraces a wider social agenda [Try an OCR Foundation Stage Biology Paper]. Whereas in the past, bright students could effectively skip this level, by doing a higher tier paper, now they have to waste time, both in the classroom and the exam hall, learning at a low level. The new science curriculum is modular, so pupils can retake their examinations, which puts further unnecessary pressure on pupils and schools. Many independent schools are teaching these elements of the GCSE course in Year 9 and putting them in for examination early in Year 10, so the examination culture is now permeating the lower years more, which is not a good thing for young people. The introduction of "functional skills" into GCSE Mathematics and English next year is likely only to have the effect of dumbing down these subjects as well.

Sadly, I believe that we are witnessing the inevitable fragmentation of the National examination system. If we are to stretch our brightest pupils and if we are to produce academic and scientific world leaders, as we have in the past, then it is not surprising that we are all looking for a more demanding alternative to GCSE.

See the following:

• Listen to Today programme item on St Paul's Science
• Listen to Today programme discussion on GCSE v iGCSE
• BBC Debate